Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors.
Behind one door is a Jet Black BMW 650i coupe with a cream beige dakota leather interior and the sport package; behind the other doors, goats.
You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, reveals a goat behind door #3.
He says to you:
"Do you want to switch to door #2?"
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?
why or why not?